World War III & the Draft

[Nora]

So I think WW3 is on the horizon. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran all hate the US and have actively tried or threatened to kill us. My fear is that they are going to look at the weakened condition of America and smell blood in the water and make their strike against us. When that happens, due to all the military cutbacks in regards to funding and personnel, the Government will have to re-institute the Draft...something that I was required by law to sign up for to celebrate my 18th birthday because I was born with a penis. ...So, years down the road, after I have finished transitioning and have built a life as my authentic self...WW3 is going to kick off, and I am probably going to be drafted...even though I am a woman, and woman are not required to sign up for the Draft (ahem, I mean "selective service" haha).

...Which could very well end up outing me unless I can come up with some other kind of story for why I have to disappear for years all of a sudden other than, "I have to go to war." haha.

...So...that just does not seem right to me. I see two solutions:

A. Get rid of the Draft altogether for men and women.

Or.

B. Require women to sign up for the Draft as well. 

Thoughts????

[Carolyn Marie]

Well, "B" has been talked about for a long time, but will probably never happen.  Regarding "A" there is no draft currently, although there is still a requirement for young males to register.

 

Although hundreds of thousands of troops, sailors and Marines were called to active duty over the last 20 years, there was never even talk about re-instituting a draft.  With all the technology available to fight modern wars, I seriously doubt there will ever be a need for a new draft.  In a nuclear war, the whole shebang will be over before you could cook a T.V. dinner.

 

Anyway, if you've legally transitioned by then, you won't be drafted unless the draft is expanded to include females.

 

For a musical comedy take on it, check out Tom Lehrer in his song, "So Long, Mom."   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcNO9VtjqUI

[Nora]

Nice, I was unsure as to what would happen. Mom said they would not take me because I am transgender, and I had to remind her that Trump un-did that foolishness almost immediately after he did it because he knew it was stupid but wanted to play to the more radically-minded members of his base like every other politician. ?

[Chiefsrule58]

Nora,

    I don't think you have anything to worry about. First of all the media likes to stir things up and keep people in fear, secondly it's more about using that fear to sale weapons abroad and keep making excuses for higher military spending. I can tell you that most of that money goes directly into the pockets of the corporations and not to help the troops or even for equipment.    Should something happen the first people to be "drafted" or rather called upon would be inactive reserves and people like me who are retired but are officially listed as fleet reserve (Navy term), I am sure the other branches have their own terminology. As far as other countries seeing  America as weak that is also unlikely when you consider the fact that we do have the most nuclear weapons, and the strongest military on the planet. The mear pressure generated from having an aircraft carrier in the area deters most countries. Bottom line I recommend you live your life and don't worry about the things you can't control anyway.

Take care,

Jamie

[tracy_j]

I don't know anything about the US draft but there are a few things that can be gleaned from things about wars. One of the sayings that have been said here in both of the last two world wars is that 'It will be all over by Christmas' when they obviously were not. Perhaps more relevant is not the actual draft itself but the power of public pressure. I don't know about over there but here in the Uk there was much pressure incited by the government which pushed the general public into shaming anyone who didn't sign up. A similar thing can be seen at the moment with people who don't have the vaccine or isolate when told. That way it isn't the legal threat but ordinary people.

 

It is true though that modern technology is so advanced that the training of a useful soldier would be a problem. Drafted troops are known to be less useful than professionals and, as such, would likely be a last resort especially as there would likely be many volunteers anyway.

 

To take things a bit further. There may be other powers such as China and Russia etc. Don't forget though that they may well not be harmonious with each other too. Whatever their politics they all need to thrive with trade. It's a major factor that it was, to a large extent, the failure of that by blockade or otherwise that gave the fall of Germany and Japan in the wars. Analysts in all coutries would realize that.  Russia may be appearing to be a problem in the middle east but they have a market there just as the US does. The market is ruling all and it is as likely as not that the provocation of a war would be the blockade of trade. That is the issue with Iran in particular with the seizing of tankers. I think the danger is not really with the countries, as such, but whether a madman gets the idea that they are in a superior position., or that a country is pushed into a corner from which the pressure may incite them to lash out and bring everyone into it.

 

Tracy

[Nora]

5 hours ago, Chiefsrule58 said:

Nora,

    I don't think you have anything to worry about. First of all the media likes to stir things up and keep people in fear, secondly it's more about using that fear to sale weapons abroad and keep making excuses for higher military spending. I can tell you that most of that money goes directly into the pockets of the corporations and not to help the troops or even for equipment.    Should something happen the first people to be "drafted" or rather called upon would be inactive reserves and people like me who are retired but are officially listed as fleet reserve (Navy term), I am sure the other branches have their own terminology. As far as other countries seeing  America as weak that is also unlikely when you consider the fact that we do have the most nuclear weapons, and the strongest military on the planet. The mear pressure generated from having an aircraft carrier in the area deters most countries. Bottom line I recommend you live your life and don't worry about the things you can't control anyway.

Take care,

Jamie

That is a little comforting, thanks.

...It is not a little comforting though that you seem to think America has the most nukes on Earth with the strongest military on Earth lol. By January 2020, the US only had 5,800 nuclear warheads. Russia, by contrast, had 6,375 nuclear warheads. They are the world's premier nuclear power. America not only does not have as many nukes, it does not even have the strongest military on Earth. No ma'am, that honor belongs to China. ...But surely we're the second most powerful, right? Nope haha. That honor belongs to freaking India. America is only the third strongest military on Earth....still a stronger military than Russia though. They sit at the number five slot when it comes to military might, with North Korea right above them, with North Korea right under America. ....Oh, and our President is downright unintelligible at times, forgets where he is, and has handlers desperately warning him not to take any questions because he'll probably say something ridiculous, like that 150,000,000 Americans have died by gun violence since 2007 hahaha, (look up what the US population is and you should know why that moment was hysterical.) Trust me. America is the laughing stock of the world right now. None of our enemies respect us anymore, and the President is cognitively declining pushover. 

...All of this, except for the bits about the nukes and our military not being the strongest, is simply my opinion of course. My deepest apologies if anyone here happens to believe that Joe is God's gift to liberals and I have somehow deeply offended their sensibilities. ?

[Marcie Jensen]

Nora,

Speaking as someone who missed the last draft by less than a year (Vietnam era), i sincerely doubt you have anything to worry about. You have fully transitioned; that means as a WOMAN, you are not eligible. Additionally, it takes an act of congress to reinstitute the draft, after a request by the president. Take a hard look at who is in power right now and you will see the current administration and congress have no interest in a draft. (If you doubt this, listen to President Biden's remarks today about the current retreat from Afghanistan.) Also, it would take a second act of congress to expand the draft to include women, which is a political impossibility at present. Finally, you stated that you have registered at 18 and have since fully transitioned. I suspect that you are probably 25 or so, which makes you too old. Even in WW2 the draft did not expand to the extent that extent. 

 

Finally, we have had an all volunteer military since the mid 1970's--nearly 50 years--and it has worked surprisingly well. I ought to know; I spent 24 years on active service.

 

Hugs,

Marcie

[Carolyn Marie]

On 8/14/2021 at 3:46 AM, Nora said:

 They are the world's premier nuclear power. America not only does not have as many nukes, it does not even have the strongest military on Earth. No ma'am, that honor belongs to China. ...But surely we're the second most powerful, right? Nope haha. That honor belongs to freaking India. America is only the third strongest military on Earth....still a stronger military than Russia though.

 

It all depends on what you're counting and who's counting it, @Nora.   If you're counting the number of service members, then yes, China is the strongest.  If you're counting the number of nuclear warheads, then yes, Russia is the strongest.  But if you're counting the total strength of each country's military, including the number of aircraft, ships (especially aircraft carriers and submarines), along with the number of service members and the size of the military budget, then the U.S. comes out on top by a wide margin.  I looked up more than five different websites and they all had the U.S. as #1.

 

Carolyn Marie

[Nora]

15 hours ago, Carolyn Marie said:

I looked up more than five different websites and they all had the U.S. as #1.

Hehe...I bet they were US websites. ?
Good old nationalistic American exceptionalism haha. 

...Just kind of have to look past the fact that a bunch of primitive Vietnamese guerilla warfighters sent us packing with our tails between our legs, and that the Taliban recently did the same thing, only now we are stupid enough to go back in for some more. ?

As great as are military used to be, I feel it has taken a turn for the worse under our current administration, which appears to feel trillions of dollars towards infrastructure and trillions more towards combating climate change are more important than adequately equipping our troops with the technology and manpower they actually need to get the job done. I would actually bet money that the 3,000 troops we just sent BACK into Afghanistan are going to accomplish nothing yet again, because the people in power simply don't understand the importance of military funding, thus they will end up embarrassing our nation for a third time. Oh well, at least we were able to make a little dent under the last administration, even that though was useless in the long run. We should have left at least a decade ago after wiping out Al Qaeda for the 9/11 attacks...which personally I feel were just patsies to cover up what really happened. I disagree with how Biden pulled us out, but I always agreed we needed to get out, and I feel it's stupid for him to be sending us back in. Getting us out was like, one of the few decisions he's made that I actually liked. Disappointing that he's undoing it all. I feel we just need to let the rest of the world succeed or fail on their own and mind our own damn business. ?

 

 

17 hours ago, Marcie Jensen said:

Nora,

Speaking as someone who missed the last draft by less than a year (Vietnam era), i sincerely doubt you have anything to worry about. You have fully transitioned; that means as a WOMAN, you are not eligible. Additionally, it takes an act of congress to reinstitute the draft, after a request by the president. Take a hard look at who is in power right now and you will see the current administration and congress have no interest in a draft. (If you doubt this, listen to President Biden's remarks today about the current retreat from Afghanistan.) Also, it would take a second act of congress to expand the draft to include women, which is a political impossibility at present. Finally, you stated that you have registered at 18 and have since fully transitioned. I suspect that you are probably 25 or so, which makes you too old. Even in WW2 the draft did not expand to the extent that extent. 

 

Finally, we have had an all volunteer military since the mid 1970's--nearly 50 years--and it has worked surprisingly well. I ought to know; I spent 24 years on active service.

 

Hugs,

Marcie

First, thank you for your service.

Second, I haven't fully transitioned yet. I've been on HRT about seven months. I was just speaking hypothetically about the future AFTER I have fully transitioned. I'm 26...and a half, haha.

Third, thanks for clearing some things up for me about how the draft/selective service works, I'm not worried at all about myself getting drafted anymore haha. Although I feel it is sexist to not also require women to sign up for selective service for the same reasons. Theoretically if a transgirl had registered at 18 but finished transition at 24 years old, couldn't she still be drafted if the government decided they just don't have the resources that they once did and have congress re-institute the draft? 

I know, it is SUPER unlikely, but as the saying goes, -crap- happens. Good to think ahead and see what we could do now to make things less difficult later on should the worst happen. ?


 

[Nora]

1 hour ago, Nora said:

Theoretically if a transgirl had registered at 18 but finished transition at 24 years old, couldn't she still be drafted if the government decided they just don't have the resources that they once did and have congress re-institute the draft? 

 

To rephrase the question: "How do we know the government would recognize her gender identity instead of going with the sex assigned at birth?" Yes, she is a WOMAN, but how can we know that the government will TREAT her as such? I feel like that's a valid concern. ?

[Nora]

Seems that simply requiring women to also register for selective service would fix the problem. Discriminating based on sex is like, the very definition of sexism. It's like saying, "Women are too weak to beat men." which is like, hugely insulting and inaccurate. ?

[Ivy]

As someone who actually was drafted, I doubt that the military would want to go back to it.  

 

While some form of universal service might make sense to keep the politicians from stupid conflicts, it would take more than a few weeks of training for any new recruits to masted the technologies involved.  

 

I think the problems the US had in Viet Nam & Afghanistan were because we were outsiders seen as invaders to be resisted.  We would do the same thing here.  

 

While I'm sure there are some good people, politics has a tendency to attract some of the biggest scum balls there are. 

[Nora]

Too true sadly. ?

[DeeDee]

"On its own, the U.S. represents just under 40% of global military spending."  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-top-countries-for-military-spending/

 

Nora, the US isn't seen as being weak, that's an internal right wing narrative to play on your nationalism, for many it is not seen as the world's peace keeper, but as a global bully sticking an oar in anywhere as long as there is an oil or trade profit to be made. Don't misunderstand me - the UK has historically been just as guilty of joining in that too. That's why the threat of "terrorism" and "W.M.D's" is so profitable..

 

Current and future conflicts are all going to be fought electronically or virally so that the winner can simply move in and take over the real estate, ideally with a work force already in place. If it gets to a point where conscription is needed in a western capitalist nation the war is already lost and we be as well start digging out the leather outfits and filling up our cars.

[Nora]

1 hour ago, DeeDee said:

a global bully sticking an oar in anywhere as long as there is an oil or trade profit to be made.

That's precisely how I see the US as well. Bullies are weak by their default nature, otherwise they wouldn't feel a need to exert their will upon others to prove their dominance.

I think once we stopped manufacturing at home and started adopting a globalist agenda is when we started sticking our proverbial oars where they don't belong. 

In regards to our military spending, it should be noted that not all that money is going to our troops. A lot of it is being allocated to special interest groups, or "key national security priorities" as CNBC likes to call them, a phrase so ambiguous and open to interpretation that it might as well be a newspaper horoscope or a fortune cookie. ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/pentagon-asks-for-715-billion-in-2022-defense-budget.html

...Basically I just don't trust anything any politician says anymore, up to and including that all 750 something billion dollars is all going towards our military and not into the pockets of dirty politicians and radical hate groups that only vote for whoever gives them free stuff and special rights that no one else gets to benefit from.

....TL;DR: It's all a facade! Trust nothing! Everything is a rich man's game! ?

[Marcie Jensen]

Just a couple of points then I'm going to bow out.

Nora: Thanks for your support. And, for raising an interesting topic. Hoi do you know when a politician is lying? Answer: His or her lips are moving...

 

As to how do we know the government would recognize her gender identity after a transition? Well, if she has gone through the entire process in her state (name change, change with SSA, and with her branch of service [in your case notifying the Selective Service] she is now LEGALLY a woman, and not subject to the draft. When I transitioned, my state first required a name change. Then I had to notify the SSA. This was followed by getting my Driver's License changed. The final step, and it was as bureaucratically (sp?) difficult as only the military could make it, was to change my retired ID card and get my retirement documentation officially changed.

 

Jandi's points about not wanting to go back to a selective service model are spot on. For a bunch of reasons. My next comments may be upsetting to some and I apologize for that, but, remember this area of the globe is highly misunderstood by all of us, so called experts notwithstanding.

 

As for the Vietnam/Afghanistan comparison, all I can say is "yes, but." My MOS was in intelligence and at one point I spoke Farsi, Dari, Arabic and Hebrew. Now I barely get by in English. Of my24 years service, I spent 20 in and out of the Middle East and SW Asia. This goes back to the mid '80's, so my perspective is one of personal observations as a national level intelligence professional. I was wrong almost as often as I was right, BTW.

 

Yes, we are deemed as invaders, but that's not the whole picture. Ke4ep in mind that the only army able to "pacify" Afghanistan was that of Alexander the Great and he did it by marching in, burning a few towns, erecting some cities and then marching into India. Historically, the Brits have failed. The Russians have failed. The Sasinids have failed and now we have failed. we are just the latest. Also, keep in mind that this is a region where the blood feud has been a staple for literally thousands of years. In Afghanistan, the tradition of feuding puts the Hatfields and McCoys to shame.

 

In short, this is a region of feu, warlords, border raiding, banditry and atrocities that may be unparalleled while converely, the people as individuals are among the nicest and friendliest I have ever met. 

 

So there4's my take on Afghanistan. It' similar to Vietnam, yet unique in it's own way. Notice I left out the religious angle. That's a topic for its own thread...

[Ivy]

5 hours ago, Marcie Jensen said:

So there4's my take on Afghanistan. It' similar to Vietnam, yet unique in it's own way.

Very true.  Just consider the advances in technology.   But this just shows high-tech isn't everything if the people aren't behind you.

[Nora]

17 hours ago, Marcie Jensen said:

Just a couple of points then I'm going to bow out.

Nora: Thanks for your support. And, for raising an interesting topic. Hoi do you know when a politician is lying? Answer: His or her lips are moving...

 

As to how do we know the government would recognize her gender identity after a transition? Well, if she has gone through the entire process in her state (name change, change with SSA, and with her branch of service [in your case notifying the Selective Service] she is now LEGALLY a woman, and not subject to the draft. When I transitioned, my state first required a name change. Then I had to notify the SSA. This was followed by getting my Driver's License changed. The final step, and it was as bureaucratically (sp?) difficult as only the military could make it, was to change my retired ID card and get my retirement documentation officially changed.

 

Jandi's points about not wanting to go back to a selective service model are spot on. For a bunch of reasons. My next comments may be upsetting to some and I apologize for that, but, remember this area of the globe is highly misunderstood by all of us, so called experts notwithstanding.

 

As for the Vietnam/Afghanistan comparison, all I can say is "yes, but." My MOS was in intelligence and at one point I spoke Farsi, Dari, Arabic and Hebrew. Now I barely get by in English. Of my24 years service, I spent 20 in and out of the Middle East and SW Asia. This goes back to the mid '80's, so my perspective is one of personal observations as a national level intelligence professional. I was wrong almost as often as I was right, BTW.

 

Yes, we are deemed as invaders, but that's not the whole picture. Ke4ep in mind that the only army able to "pacify" Afghanistan was that of Alexander the Great and he did it by marching in, burning a few towns, erecting some cities and then marching into India. Historically, the Brits have failed. The Russians have failed. The Sasinids have failed and now we have failed. we are just the latest. Also, keep in mind that this is a region where the blood feud has been a staple for literally thousands of years. In Afghanistan, the tradition of feuding puts the Hatfields and McCoys to shame.

 

In short, this is a region of feu, warlords, border raiding, banditry and atrocities that may be unparalleled while converely, the people as individuals are among the nicest and friendliest I have ever met. 

 

So there4's my take on Afghanistan. It' similar to Vietnam, yet unique in it's own way. Notice I left out the religious angle. That's a topic for its own thread...

Wow, well said indeed! Thank you so much for your insight! ?

[Kris-Boston]

The draft , as the law is now it only applies to males and could be wrong but not those who have transitioned .  But my dad , who was an only child , and in effect deaf in one ear and had Asthma was drafted pre Korean war .  Then recalled from the inactive reserves and shipped off to Korea and was one of only two in his company to make it back home , he  spent months of recovery  Japan .  So unless you know someone , and have lots of money likely if it comes you will get drafted.   I am not afraid to serve if the need comes , but I never did more do the disgraceful way his post injury combat injuries were treated .   The in the last years of his life the VA at last increased his disability which they attempted to zero out . That is something I am proud to had a role in , they love to blame some fire . But his right leg was fine , in there records it was damaged , but his left was damaged beyond belief .  But from my experience people with military service is honored and they do protect there own , unless you are a misfit .   I helped drum out someone unstable for police service did not enjoy doing it but failed to follow multiple times safety on the range  the drill instructors were eyes on him all the time .   There are non combat roles as well for those drafted I believe as well . 

[Marcie Jensen]

I wasn't going to respond, as I said in my last post, but Kris's post made me do a fact check to see if transpeople can be drafted. According to the selective service website (www,sss,gov) here is the actual piece that applies to transwomen (int4ere4stingly, ther4e is no mention of transmen on the site: As of 2019, "In the event of a resumption of the draft, individuals born male who have changed their gender to female can file a claim for an exemption from military service if they receive an order to report for examination or induction."  I think that clarifies matters. 

 

As to th4e draft policies of the Korean War (71 years ago) the law has changed. I'll not deny that being related to someone in power (congress, federal judg4e, etc.) might get one out of the draft, but the law changed following Vietnam because the exemption rules were abused--to include joining the national guard or reserves to avoid being drafted. That said, the difference being drafted and voluntarily enlisting is that if one enlists, one gets some say in choosing their MOS (job). Draftees get no choice, and will serve "the needs of the Army." BTW, this also applies to those enlisted personnel who do not pass their Advanced Individual Training (AIT). For example (and I saw this multiple times as a civilian DoD trainer at FT Huachuca) a soldier who cannot pass the Interrogation or Counterintelligence courses wound up as either a truck driver or a cook. Some wound up in the infantry as tankers. This was as r4ecently as 2016.

 

Hope this clears things up.

[PrincipalGeek]

World wars are too costly for those in power, cyber 'war' is going on now and has been ramping up heavily the last few years.  The participants in this case are governments as well as criminal enterprises and they are all attacking each other with splash damage hitting critical services.  Media tends to report on very little of it, there's just too much and the information available can be rather technical

 

The draft can't really help much there.  The NSA sends recruiters to college campuses, that's about the most effective means.  At least then you have a choice.

 

I think everyone worries about the draft.. right about the time they are required to register for it.  I know I did.