Poll Allegedly Shows CA Voters Are Not So Liberal On Trans Issues

[Carolyn Marie]

https://www.deseret.com/2023/12/6/23984356/california-poll-gender-affirming-care-transgender-bills

 

 

My headline for this thread uses the word "allegedly" b/c Deseret News Is owned by the LDS Church, so the poll and their reporting on it may be skewed to the right end of the political spectrum, and I can't vouch for the accuracy of the poll.  I've never heard of the polling company.

 

Carolyn Marie

[awkward-yet-sweet]

42 minutes ago, Carolyn Marie said:

My headline for this thread uses the word "allegedly" b/c Deseret News Is owned by the LDS Church, so the poll and their reporting on it may be skewed to the right end of the political spectrum, and I can't vouch for the accuracy of the poll.  I've never heard of the polling company.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head.  True for polls in general - the source, sponsorship, location, sample size, and types of respondents matter a great deal.  After all, we know "85% of statistics are made up on the spot."  😏

 

 

[Heather Shay]

Thumbs up Carolyn

[KatieSC]

There are a lot of conservative communities in California, hence the push to split California into multiple states. The more rural areas are where the conservatism is stronger. This is counterbalanced by the big cities. If we are seen as the biggest threat to so many of the conservative Republican areas. This wave against us is strong, but I believe it will eventually be rejected by the younger generations coming in. Fortunately, these older conservative areas seem to not procreate too frequently. There is that...

 

 

[Ivy]

2 hours ago, KatieSC said:

This wave against us is strong, but I believe it will eventually be rejected by the younger generations coming in.

I hope so, but there seem to be plenty of younger transphobes.

[VickySGV]

"1,000 potential voters" 

 

CA Secretary of State's most recent documented registration figures. 

 

State Total   26,673,525     Registered Voters     {  1000=  0.0037490% }

 

Registered Democratic Party 22,114,456      Percent    82.91%

 

Registered Republican Party   10,353,432     Percent    46.82%

 

 

Hmmmmmmmm!!!

[Ivy]

4 hours ago, VickySGV said:

recent documented registration figures.

Apparently there's more people there than realized.  And when you add in the independents……

[awkward-yet-sweet]

OK, I'm confused.  I'm no scholar, but isn't a "whole" supposed to be 100%?  Yet 82% are Democrats and 46% are Republicans?  Unless I'm missing something, that's more than 100%.... are people double registered or something?

 

It seems like a lot of studies go for 1000 respondents.  I guess its just a nice, round number?  But for a state as big as CA, its a pretty small sample size.  And 1000 people from San Fransisco will give very different results than 1000 people from Northern CA smaller towns.  It would be interesting to know the polling locations they used, but I suspect that the study is basically worthless due to its sample size and limitations. 

[VickySGV]

2 hours ago, awkward-yet-sweet said:

OK, I'm confused.  I'm no scholar, but isn't a "whole" supposed to be 100%?  Yet 82% are Democrats and 46% are Republicans?  Unless I'm missing something, that's more than 100%....

 

I just checked and see your problem and mine.  I copied the numbers off a page of the and picked up a figure I did not mean to.  26,673,525 is the total able to register statewide, and the 82.91% is the numbers that actually have registered.

 

22,114,456 is the total registered,   10,353,432  is the number of Democrats registered, (46.82%);  and Republicans come in at 5,286,269 (23.9%)   American Independent party 825,981 (3.74%)  Green Party 101,620 (0.46%)   Libertarians 242, 299 (1.10%)  No Party Preference 4,914,982 (22.23)  and a couple more categories that equaled about 1.5% of the real total.